Indianmarket

  ·        Contrary to earlier expectations, after June’s soft US job report, the Fed may be on hold till Dec '26 to bring down transitory, hotter inflation without causing a hard landing. ·        The RBI governor sounded less hawkish, as the RBI may be on hold till at least Dec '26, contrary to any hike. ·        Trump’s random comments about the progress of the Iran deal (at gunpoint) also helped risk trade, but growing AI bubble concerns may be an issue going forward. India’s benchmark stock index Nifty scaled to almost 24400, at a 5-week high Friday, July 3, 2025, and edged up +0.4% on fading concern of Fed & RBI rate hikes. This comes after oil falls due to the progress of the US-Iran peace deal, and the latest June US job data comes much softer than expected. Overall, contrary to earlier market expectations of a Fed rate hike by December '26, the market is now expecting the Fed may ...

·   Taylor’s modified rule indicates the RBI should keep the terminal repo rate around 3.0% rather than 5.0%. ·        Decades of higher (often double-digit) borrowing/funding costs and high indirect/consumption taxes, including elevated energy costs, have affected overall Indian economic productivity. ·        Now, almost all of India is under one party (BJP) ‘Double Engine Sarkar/Govt.' Both policymakers and politicians have to act prudently for the ‘Viksit Bharat' developed India aspiration by 2047-50. In June '26, the RBI adopts a hawkish hold stance amid concerns about transitory hotter CPI inflation, some moderation in economic growth, and a largely stable employment/labor market, at least officially. The RBI may continue to be in neutral (wait & watch) mode till at least December '26. Although the RBI and the government are taking various regulatory measures, including tax concessions, to boost FPI/FDI inf...

  ·        After gaining the last two days amid a ‘confirmed’ Iran MOU and the gradual reopening of the SOH and a less hawkish RBI stance, Nifty stumbled. ·        Trump intends to fully control the SOH as a net gain for his Iran war mess, but Iran is not ready to surrender their nuclear option (SOH control). ·        Although a full-scale Iran war may already be over, there may be occasional skirmishes or cease-fire violations due to the respective domestic political compulsions of all the stakeholders. India’s benchmark stock index Nifty edged down early Monday, June 29, as oil gained on the US-Iran ceasefire break over the weekend over the SOH (Strait of Hormuz) control. The fragile June 17 ceasefire (MOU) between the US and Iran has pushed to the brink of collapse following the tit-for-tat military strikes. Concurrently, Israel continues to launch deadly strikes in southern Lebanon against...